A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
