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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd